Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /home/dschall2/public_html/wp-includes/cache.php on line 36

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /home/dschall2/public_html/wp-includes/query.php on line 21

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /home/dschall2/public_html/wp-includes/theme.php on line 540
MLB Baseball Over/Under Gambling

Betting on NCAA and NFL Games

When you are ready to start college football betting there is only one handicapper to turn to and that’s Jimmy Boyd. The handicapping site at boydsbets.com has all the tools that you need in order to get started with your own personal handicapper, or if you are ready to take advantage of our professional service then you can get started with our premium college football picks.

Either way our site is here to help you survive the season and help you make more money off of the sportsbooks this fall. The regular season of NCAA action gets started at the end of August with an opening Eddie Robinson game. From this game on we are going to be putting on a full out blitz on your sportsbook in order to ensure that you are making the most money that you can.

If you have never gambled on this sport before, then take a look at our how to bet on college football article to make sure you know what you are doing and don’t lose money due to a misunderstanding. There isn’t going to be another handicapping service out there that will put in the time and effort that we do in order to make sure we find every mistake the lines makers have in the week’s college football odds.

When you are handicapping NCAA football it is important to remember that it is a totally different creature than the NFL. There is a batch of new players each year that come in as freshman and a lot of the experienced players graduate and move on to other phases of life. This constant shuffle and reshuffle means that the focus should be on learning the skills and talents of the players who are currently playing, and less on the trends, coaching styles, and systems of teams that may have been together for years like you find in the NFL.

There are over 100 division I teams playing games, so if you do not have the time to go through the rosters and learn the attributes of the players and how they mesh with each other then maybe it’s time you rely on the experts here at Locksmith Sports. Our job is to go through all the team blogs about injuries, standings, player performances, matchups, and changes in philosophy for upcoming games so we can stay abreast on exactly what is going on every week. There isn’t anyone out there who goes to greater lengths to ensure that they do not miss a thing that could help them pick a winner than Jimmy Boyd.

You may think the cost of a handicapping service that does all that would be extremely expensive, but since we have so many clients coming to us on a daily basis the cost gets spread out among them and we are allowed to charge very low rates for access to our selections. You can get started by signing up for our free college football picks newsletter in order to work your way in, or some people do not want to miss a beat and they head right on over to the premium section. Whatever your choice, let’s make sure this year of college football betting is going to be better than anyone you have had in the past.

NCAA Football Betting

When the fall months roll around it’s time for us to focus on the NFL and NCAA football betting. This is one of the top sports to wager on for the general public and we want to make sure that they are as educated as possible, so when it comes to winning with their NCAA football betting it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. It takes a lot of work to beat the weekly lines and you have to have some experience and knowledge to do it consistently like Jimmy Boyd and his Locksmith Sports handicapping team.

There are plenty of options every week that you can take advantage of including betting on the sides of the games, totals of games, and a plethora of season props. We will be posting articles on odds to win the conferences, Heisman previews, and odds to win the Super Bowl. No matter what kind of gambling you are interested in, we will be able to help you do it better. You simply are not going to want to miss a single day of our NCAA football picks as we have historically hit 60% of our predictions. We will do it again this season and when we do we want you to be on the band wagon.

Of course you don’t just have to get winning picks on your side to do well because it isn’t going to matter at all unless you have a reliable online sportsbooks to bet the games at. We have put together quite a few different sportsbooks that we ourselves use for our personal NCAA football betting and we know that you will be completely comfortable with these locations. If you have been around the world of online betting for as long as we have then you know that there are certain companies that are unreliable. They start trying to claim you as a professional or bonus hunter and can withhold paying you your winnings. We do not want this to happen to anyone who visits our site so make sure you only make a deposit at one of our top offshore sportsbooks reviewed by our staff.

Super Bowl Betting

The Super Bowl betting odds will be posted as soon as the teams for the big game are announced. Everyone knows about the spread and the total that are available for each and every NFL game throughout the season, but the Super Bowl brings in more unique Prop bets than any other game on Earth. This allows gamblers to place action on the rushing yards of each player, passing yards, catches, attempts, first downs, who will win the coin toss, and many other situations.

This gives gamblers more of a chance to lose their hard-earned money on one game, but if you do enough research you can make intelligent predictions on if one team is going to focus on the run or the pass, and take over or unders on the yards accordingly. Make sure your online Super Bowl betting is done with a champion handicapper like Jimmy Boyd or else you will need to really hit the informational sources in order to make the most of your money.

How to Middle a Bet

How do we middle a bet? There are many answers to that question, and I’ll go over each of them, and try to give you some possible middling opportunities.

To middle a bet is to get the best of the line on both sides of a game. There are different examples of middling so let me go over the various possibilities you may find. Middling opportunities can exist in virtually every sport so let’s break them down individually. In football for example, we would look to take a team at -2.5 points and take the other side at +3.5 points. If the game landed 3 we would win both of our bets. That is the main idea when we look for a middle. Get the best of both numbers.

There is also what is called a half-middle. For example, we take that same team at -2.5 points and take the other side at +3. If the game lands 3 we hit the one bet and get a push on the other side. We can do the same thing with a total in football. For example, we could play a game under the total of 37 and take the same game over the total of 36.

The same possibilities exist in basketball with the side and the total. For us to be able to middle games in football or basketball we have to be very aware of line movement. Most of the time a game will move one way or another and the key to getting a middle is getting the number before it moves.

For example, let’s say we take New England -2.5 as they travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. We need the line to move to -3 to get a half-middle and to 3.5 for a full middle. We would then take the Dolphins plus the 3 or 3.5 and have a nice middle opportunity. We’ll talk more about football and basketball middles in a moment but I want to let you know about middles in other sports as well.

Middling in Baseball

A few years ago baseball was a haven for middlers as many of them made a living by doing nothing but middling games. It is much harder now but it used to be a big thing. Middling baseball is different than football because if you find a baseball middle you are guaranteed to win. For example, let’s say you have the Yankees at -150 as they play in Tampa Bay. You are able to find a price that has the Rays at +155. You now have a middle, and with some calculating, you can be guaranteed a profit no matter which team wins the game.

The previous example would be a middle of five cents. You have to really bet a large amount of money to gain ground when sports betting on baseball middles, but the professionals used to make a living doing just that. You need to have the ability to shop for lines and to have a lot of outs to make it worth your time and effort. You also have to take the lead a lot of the time and expose yourself to some risk to really get good middles.

Totals are much tougher to middle in baseball and very few opportunities exist, so I’ll bypass them. Middling is not that common in hockey either since a 20 cent line or higher is used. Some of the fringe sports like tennis and golf can be very good middling sports because the line movement is so volatile. Very often in golf you will see movement of 40 or 50 cents and that gives you a chance for guaranteed money again.

For example, let’s say we have Tiger Woods at -180 against Rory McIlroy. The professionals and the public bet Woods to no end and drive the price up to -240. If we got the original number on Woods at -180 we could now take McIlroy at perhaps +200 or +210, depending upon the buyback we find. Again, with a little calculation, we can guarantee a profit no matter which golfer wins. Sports like golf, soccer, tennis, boxing, and other sports that have big line movement are very good opportunities for middling.

Middling in Football and Basketball

Let me touch again a little big on the middling of football and basketball. It is different than baseball because we can lose money. In our previous example if New England won the game by 7 points we would win the Patriots bet and lose the Dolphins bet. We lose the juice involved, which is usually 10 cents. If we bet both teams to win a thousand then our loss would be 100 dollars. We win the Patriots for 1000 but lose the Dolphins bet for 1100.

We have to really know our percentages when middling football and basketball, and stick to key numbers. In the NFL it is usually only worth a middling shot when you can get the number three. Some people will middle around the number 7 but the long-term statistics just don’t show it to be that profitable.

College football middles are much more difficult because the scores are far less predictable. In the NFL we have scores that generally stay in the same range but that is not usually the case in college, and we need a lot more numbers to be able to take a chance at a college middle. The same holds true for basketball, as the NBA is a better middling sport than college basketball because the key numbers are more likely to be involved.

In the NBA key numbers revolve around 2,3,4, and 5. Since the NBA can be more volatile in line movement, we are more likely to get a bigger middle than what we find in the NFL. It is also harder to hit, so we need those extra points. College football and college basketball are more difficult to hit, so we need a greater range of numbers before trying to middle the game. In college football the number three is not nearly as key as it is in the NFL, and for the most part college football middles require 3 or 4 point swings to have any chance of being profitable. The same holds true for college basketball.

Hopefully these basics for middling will help you if you decide to venture into that form of wagering. If you are looking at middling long term, then you will need the exact percentages and calculations to make it profitable. This basic information for middling is a good place to start.

Over/Under Gambling in Basketball

The NBA is one of the more popular sports for gamblers. This is because there is action on most days during the NBA season. Many of the games are not decided until the final 5 minutes, and this makes betting on these games very exciting.

So how do we go about betting the NBA? It is very straight forward for the most part. We have a point spread and a total on every game. If we like the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Phoenix Suns, the line might read Thunder -14 with a total of 202. We lay 110 to win 100 on whatever side or total we like. And I can tell you the Thunder get a lot of action. When you have a superstar at nearly every position you can understand the attraction. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, - they are loaded with stars.

The Miami Heat are another huge team for gamblers. Miami got off to a slow start but as the NBA season winds down they are competing for the best record in the league. The downside to betting the Heat is that they are a huge public team. Everywhere you go everyone seems to either like or hate the Heat. That really makes them a public team. They are like what the Cowboys used to be in the NFL. They have this love - hate relationship with fans.


That relationship can help you in your betting. You may get a little bit more value betting against the Heat on some occasions.

To start looking at how to profit betting on the NBA we’ll begin with a few tips. Situations are a key factor when handicapping the NBA. When you are making a bet on the NBA look at how the teams are playing, what situation they are in, how they do head to head, and their home and away records.

Let’s say that you really like the San Antonio Spurs. They are playing at Memphis and are a 5.5 point favorite. A couple of things to keep in mind is how the Spurs do when they visit Memphis. Another thing to keep in mind is did the Spurs play the previous night. It is always difficult to play back to back nights in the NBA. That is especially true when that second game is on the road.

Other situations that factor into your selection might be which team needs the game. Late in the season teams are jockeying for playoff position and will really focus on certain games. Look at those situations closely.

Over/Under Betting

Let’s say you really don’t have a strong opinion on the side but you think the game is going to be high scoring. Bet the over. It is always more fun to watch the two teams and cheer for points rather than cheer against them.

I have known many gamblers over the years and nearly all of them prefer to play the over. That does not mean they win. It just means they like to see points scored. That can help your cause in certain situations. You see a total that has been set high because the bookmaker knows the public likes to bet the over. It gives you good value taking the under. And those are the type of plays that can turn you into a winner.

When betting on the NBA you will find that things really matter more in the last few minutes of the game. I can’t count how many times I have had double digit leads midway through an NBA game, only to lose in the last few minutes. If you like to watch the NBA and suffer through each and every basket, then the last few minutes are even more exciting.

Here are a couple of more things to think about when betting on the NBA. Injuries and key players missing can be huge when making your NBA bet. If Kobe Bryant is not playing for the Lakers then it affects the betting line and really makes it hard to play Los Angeles. But remember, the bookmaker knows that too. And he adjusts the betting line accordingly, sometimes too much. They know you will not bet the Lakers since Bryant is out and he gives the opposing team more value.

Also keep in mind that this is the NBA and even the backup players are pros and often teams get inspired when missing an injured player. So don’t overreact to a player being out. Just be aware of it.

One area I have not covered when betting the NBA is the money line. It is based on just having the team win the game. No point spread is involved. An example would look like this. New York at Toronto. The Raptors are -5 with a total of 183. Toronto is -210 on the money line while New York is +180. So if you like taking the odds on Toronto on the money line you are risking 210 to win 100. If you like the Knicks, you are risking 100 to win 180. The moneyline is not as heavily bet in the NBA but is something you may want to add to your betting menu when you see a good opportunity.

If you love betting on the NBA remember to take into account some of the tips we talked about. Watch for those streaks and enjoy the game. As always, don’t forget your gut. When you get that feeling - go with it.

Looking for more sports advice, check out these sportsbetting tips.

Over/Under Gambling in Football

I briefly went over this in the last post, but I would like to expand my thinking a little bit as far as football is concerned. Betting on the over/under in football is a little complicated and shouldn’t be attempted by all gamblers.

The total points scored in a football game is set on a couple of factors: overall offensive abilities of the two teams, overall defensive abilities of the two teams, the average turnovers created or made by both teams, the weather (or lack there of) and recent injuries. This means that the oddsmakers are going to be pretty accurate (within 5 points) more than half of the time.

The one thing that you need to look for is the outlier games. There are very few times that the over/under will be less than 38 points. That is the equivalent of a score of 21-17. If there are two offensively challenged teams, the defenses usually have to step up to win any particular game.

Let’s say that two teams that are in the bottom 10 at scoring points per game and they are in the top half of the league with team defense, like Tampa Bay, Cleveland, New York Jets, or Arizona. If two of these teams play each other, the total is likely going to be less than 35 points. There is no way that the sportsbooks can make a 35 point total. This would be a great time to take the Under.

On the other side, the over will never go over 56 points. This is the equivalent of a 35-21 score. You need to look for teams that have a great offense, but also let up a lot on defense. This includes Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Diego and Philadelphia so far this year. If two of these teams are playing each other, it would be a good chance to take the over.

Then, there is teams that have prolific offenses. This year, that team is the Denver Broncos. The sportsbooks are going to break all-time over/under point totals set with this team. They are averaging almost 45 points per game. People are taking the over every time and the line on their games are increasing fast. This weekend’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys has a total of 55.5 points. You still almost have to take the over because Denver is hitting on all cylinders and Dallas has a good offense as well.

This weekend, there is only one matchup that has a total under 40 points: Kansas City at Tennessee. The Titans are going to struggle on offense because they lost their starting QB Jake Locker for multiple weeks and the Chiefs have a great defense. However, the Titans have a very good defense as well and the Chiefs QB Alex Smith is very conservative on offense. This has a low scoring game written all over it. The over/under line is 39.5, which I think will still go under.

On the other side, Detroit plays at Green Bay. Both teams have very good offenses and questionable defenses. This game has a line of 53.5. Both teams are likely to score more than 28 points. This doesn’t just apply to good teams either. Philadelphia plays at the New York Giants and both teams are struggling on defense. The Giants are struggling on offense as well, but they usually do well in divisional rivalries. This game has a total of 53.5 as well; but in this case, you may want to stay away because the game is likely to be unpredictable.

If you are going to bet on an over/under total between 41 and 48 points, which is the average point total for teams with average offenses or defenses, you need to have some kind of thought process, positional matchup statistics, or another type of edge before you place that wager.

If you are thinking about betting on the over/under of these football games, you best bet is to find the best nfl betting odds by shopping that total around at multiple sportsbooks. If you want to bet on the under, find the sportsbook with the highest total. If you want to bet on the over, find the sportsbook with the lowest total.

Betting the Totals in Other Sports

Betting on the Over/Under has always been one of the more difficult wagers to predict correctly. The main reason for this is that actions that take place during a sporting event often steers the number of runs, points or goals that are scored in the game.

Let’s take baseball for an example. The total runs line is set based upon the overall offensive prowess of the two teams combined. In addition to that, the total is also set based upon the pitching matchup: how many runs does the starter give up, how many innings the starter goes, and how good is each team’s bullpen. This means that the oddsmakers are pretty good at getting it close to the mark.

Individual games can be wildly off of the total one way or another. This is where the dynamics of the events that happen during the game come into play. One inning can make a world of difference for the total going over. An error that should have ended an inning can lead to a series of walks and hits that extend an inning.

The basics for betting the under is to find a game where the two aces are starting. This is especially true when one of the two teams isn’t batting well over the past 10 games. Usually, the absolute lowest total you will see in the MLB is 5. There are just too many factors that can happen to make the total lower than that.

The basics for betting the over is to find a game with at least one struggling starter or a game where a long reliever has to start. If a team is swinging hot bats, that’s all the better. The highest that you will see a total in the MLB is usually no more than 10. A total of 9 is even a little high. In games that may get out of control because of bad pitching matchups, you may even see the total off the board, meaning you can’t bet on it.

Totals Betting in Other Sports

I’m going to go through these rather quickly, because betting on the totals is always a rather inexact science. You will be able to bet on the totals at the online sports betting USA websites.

Football

The total points scored in the NFL games will be drastically different that betting on the over/under on college football games.

I’ve never personally place an over/under wager on any NCAA football game. This is because there are vast talent gaps between a lot of the teams that are matched up against each other. The college games have much more wild swings and some teams will keep the pedal to the metal and blow out the bottom feeders while others will let up and put all of their backups in for more playing time.

These factors make the games notoriously difficult to predict, especially in non-conference play. The total points can range from as low as 38 points to more than 70 points.

The NFL games are only slightly easier to predict. All of the teams have around the same talent level, more or less. That’s why you don’t see teams losing 49-7 very often. One of the largest point spreads I’ve ever seen was this past weekend between the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Seattle Seahawks with Seattle favored by 20.5 points.

The average NFL game over/under total can range between 38 points for two dominant defenses up to about 54 when two offensive juggernauts play each other. The team defense and offense statistics usually hold true to form after about 4 or 5 games.

In order to predict the total correctly for any football game, you need to do two things:

1) Pick your games selectively - In 4 out of 5 games, there isn’t going to be anything that stands out statistically or matchup wise to make your decision easier. Find those 2 to 4 games per week that you believe to have some indication that the total will definitely go over or under.

2) Look for key injuries to certain positions - If a team has a backup player in for a starter against a strength for the other team, this is a good indication that the dynamic of the game will be changed. For instance, if a key offensive lineman goes down and the current matchup is against a team with a great front 7, you can expect more sacks and quarterback pressures. If a key cornerback goes down and the current matchup is against a great passing team, you can expect the quarterback to pick on the secondary.

Basketball

The total points scored per game is again different whether you are talking about the NBA or college games. The NBA scores will be higher because the games are 48 minutes as opposed to 40 minutes, the shot clock is 24 seconds as opposed to 35 seconds, and the talent level is off-the-charts higher in the pro game.

You can expect the average NBA over/under total to be between 170 at the low end for two defensive minded teams that eat up the shot clock and as high as 215 if high octane teams like Denver and Houston are playing.

The average college game can range between about 100 if Princeton is playing and as high as 145 if two of the top-tier offenses play against each other.

When it comes to betting the over/under in basketball, you should look at how each team has been playing over the past 5 to 10 games. Just like baseball, basketball teams go on streaks. The main categories that you should be looking at to determine who to bet on include field goal percentage, rebounds, turnovers, free throw percentage, and the number of free throws attempted per game.

Hockey

Hockey may be the most difficult to predict out of any sport. The first period of a hockey game will determine a lot about how the game will be played. Either the floodgates could get opened by a couple of quick goals, making one or both teams play more aggressively offensively, or a scoreless first period could make the game a defensive game of chess.

Like the other sports that are played more than once per week, hockey is a game where teams go on streaks. You best bet is to find the teams that are playing well offensively over the past 1 to 2 weeks.

Over/Under Betting

When it comes to online betting, the majority of gamblers are going to be betting on the moneyline or point spread. Fewer people place bets on the Over/Under for the runs/point total. Usually, the people that place a bet on the Total have either placed a Parlay bet or they are trying to hedge a bet that they made on the spread or money line.

Total Betting

This wager type is the easiest to understand and it is called total betting. Here you’re wagering on whether the total number of points scored by both teams will be over or under the posted betting total.

For example in baseball this bet might be over/under 8.5 runs, in hockey over/under 5.5 scores, in football over/under 40.5 points, in basketball over/under 200 points.

The same as is true for point spread, unless otherwise stated these bets are assumed to be offered at -110 (risk $110 to win $100), though at online betting sites are usually stated. It’s also quite common to see each option have a different price such as over 5.5 -130 / under 5.5 +110.

When it comes to MLB sports betting, you are really going to need to know the MLB teams tendencies. The most important of the statistics that you need to know when it comes to betting on the Total runs is the pitching matchups.

Specifically, there are some pitchers that seem to get lots of run support from their offense. Conversely, there are some pitchers who receive little run support. If you combine this information with the pitcher’s ERA, you can get a very good idea if you would want to bet on the Total one way or another.

Parlay Betting

I mentioned the Parlay Bet earlier in this post. This is a combination of two or more bets. In order to receive a better payout, you are choosing to combine these bets together. If you lose one bet in the Parlay, then you have lost the money on the bet.

I have seen 3, 4, 5 and even 6 game Parlay specials. These are usually for picking the spread winners for several different games. However, you can choose to make a 2 bet parlay with a combination of Point Spread or Moneyline and the Total Bet that you place.

Hedging Bets

Hedging your bets is the complete opposite of a Parlay. The bets that you are placing do not have an effect on each other. You are basically risking losing the juice that you paid if you split the two bets. But, you will win large if you are correct about both bets.

Thursday Over/Under Baseball Totals Betting

Edit -I marked yesterday’s game down as a loss but it was a win as the Yankees and Orioles scored 12 runs.

Today is a big baseball over/under system day.  5 possible run total plays today with good value.

  • Pittsburgh Pirates / St. Louis Cardinals OVER 8 -110 (4.1)
  • Detroit Tigers / Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 +100(2.0)
  • Kansas City Royals / Chicago White Sox OVER 8.5 -115 (1.9)
  • Cleveland Indians / Texas Rangers OVER 10.5 -105 (2.1)
  • Milwaukee Brewers / San Fransisco Giants UNDER 8  (1.7)*
    *This is a play if you can get it at 8.  I see the line fluctuating between 7.5 and 8 all morning.

Yesterday’s picks:

  • New York Yankees / Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5  +100 (1.7) WINNER

Running total for the 2009 MLB Over/Under Baseball System:

  • 3-1-1, +1.93 units

Over/Under system plays for Wednesday

Looking at the baseball lines and the betting system this moring, I see there is one run total play for today so far:

  • New York Yankees / Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5  +100 (1.7)

Yesterday’s picks:

  • St.Louis Cardinals / Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 (1.6) - winner
  • Colorado Rockies / Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (2.1) - winner

Running total for the 2009 MLB Over/Under Baseball System:

  • 2-1-1, +0.93 units 

Over/Under Total Baseball bets for Tuesday

For Tuesday’s games, the system has 2 picks so far:

  • St.Louis Cardinals / Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 (1.6)
  • Colorado Rockies / Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (2.1)

Yesterdays pick ended up pushing.

Running total for the 2009 MLB Over/Under Baseball System:

  • 0-1-1, -1.07 units 

2009 Baseball Opening Day Over/Under Pick

March 6, 2009 - Major League Baseball Over/Under Picks

Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers Over 10 (2.5)
Time:2:05 PM EST

Only one play for today so far, but I am expecting a few more as opening day rolls along and lines move.

Last nights play looked good from the go with 3 home runs and 4 runs before the top of the 2nd ended, but the teams combined for only 1 more run the rest of the way.

I wanted to add a little side note about the number in paranthesis.  Think of this number as a power or strength of pick number.  The lowest the number will ever be is 1.5, as this is the minimum difference I need to see from my system lines vs the actual line.  So at 2.6, my system is saying that this game should have an over/under of 12.5.  Hope that helps.

Running totals: Season 0-1, -1.07 units.